Akatsuki no Midway

Addendum 5 - Impact on the Pacific and European Fronts

In this timeline, the defeat of the British Eastern Fleet in the Indian Ocean has already begun to affect the European front. The cancellation of the invasion of Madagascar, which took place in OTL, is the most glaring example of this, and similar problems will continue to occur in the future of this timeline. Probably due to the heavy losses incurred by the US Navy in Midway and the Japanese Navy's advance into the Indian Ocean in Operation B, Operation Torch, the Allied landing operation in North Africa conducted in November 1942 in OTL, should not have been able to be carried out.

In OTL, in April 1942, the Governor of Madagascar, Paul Annet, was ordered by Pierre Laval, the head of the Vichy government, to cooperate with the Japanese Navy submarines when they arrived at the port of Madagascar. In the absence of an Allied landing in Madagascar, the Vichy French regime would still have a certain influence over the colony. This would create a situation in North Africa where a powerful French fleet with the battleships Richelieu and Jean Bart would be in conflict with the Allies.

The Richelieu had not healed from the damage sustained in the Battle of Dakar in 1940, and the Jean Bart was not yet complete, but the Anglo-American forces, which had suffered heavy naval losses in the Indian Ocean and Midway respectively due to their blunder, would be overly cautious of the Vichy fleet in North Africa. The battleship Massachusetts and the aircraft carrier Ranger participated in OTL Operation Torch, but ITTL, these forces need to be routed to the Pacific Ocean, and there will be a shortage of ships to eliminate the Vichy fleet and deliver the landing fleet to North Africa.

This would create the possibility that, thanks in part to the success of the Japanese Navy's trade-destroying operations in the Indian Ocean, the German Afrika Korps would be able to continue their advance and secure the Suez Canal by taking Alexandria, Cairo, and other cities. In addition, the Indian Ocean was not only a supply route for the British forces on the Egyptian front, but it also served as the Persian Gulf route out of the three routes for naval support.

The Japanese Navy's raids in the Indian Ocean and landings at Ceylon and Madagascar would inevitably have an impact on the German-Soviet War. Case Blue (Fall Blau), the German summer offensive, began in late June 1942. At the same time, Britain and the US sailed the PQ 17 convoy, a large fleet of ships to support the Soviets, to Arkhangelsk in the Soviet Union. This fleet suffered heavy losses, with 22 out of 33 merchant ships sunk by the German attack, temporarily causing the cancellation of the convoys via the Norwegian Sea. ITTL, this fleet would have suffered heavy damage, and the result would have been the same: hesitation on the part of Britain and the United States to participate in the subsequent convoys to the Soviet Union.

The problem, however, is the timing of the next convoy. In OTL, the PQ 18 finally sailed on September 2, when the Mediterranean front had calmed down and the escort vessels could be reinforced, but it too suffered heavy losses, though not as much as the previous convoy. The JW 51 convoy sailed in December, and the Battle of the Barents Sea took place with the German fleet that appeared to attack this convoy.

ITTL, the Mediterranean front over Malta and other islands would not have calmed down, but would have suffered setbacks by the Japanese Navy's raids in the Indian Ocean, and the Royal Navy would not be able to afford to send its naval vessels to escort. Rather, the British will be more concerned with maintaining the Indian Ocean route in order to obtain the supplies they need to carry out the war. The Indian Ocean was an important sea route for importing food from Australia and New Zealand to the British mainland, and if this route were cut off, the British people would starve.

Furthermore, the British, who had lost Burma at the time, were transporting the grains they needed for India from Egypt. Coal from Bengal was also important to maintain the British war effort. If the Indian Ocean route was cut off, Britain would naturally have to rely on supplies from the United States as an alternative. Since the US grand strategy in World War II was basically to focus on the European front, the US could not overlook this predicament. Supplies that were to be sent to the Soviet Union would flow to the United Kingdom.