The Brexit Chronicles

The Story So Far...

Published on October 1st, 2018.

A brief round up of events since the referendum.

Within hours of the referendum result being declared, David 'pork poker' Cameron announced his resignation as Prime Minister. He was swiftly followed by Chancellor George Osborne who seemingly was teleported out of sight, such was his absence. The political vacuum was filled not by Boris Johnson, leading cabinet Leave campaigner, who could have walked into Downing Street unopposed, but Remain supporter Theresa May who had the post foisted on her because no-one else wanted the job.

Nigel Farage - the United Kingdom Independence Party leader - also decided to dodge his destiny, choosing to announce his retirement rather than attempt to convert the Kippers into a mainstream populist party on the back of the result. With his departure, the force binding a fractious and frankly bizarre assemblage together was gone, and the organisation spectacularly disintegrated. There were a number of short-term replacement leaders elected, but each of their brief careers fell victim to faux-pas and scandals successively worse than their predecessor. As a result UKIP has become an irrelevance, with many former members - including its single MP and many local councillors - defecting to the Tories.

Labour had their problems as well: Jeremy Corbyn's perceived lukewarm support for the Remain campaign being the catalyst for the Blairites within the shadow cabinet to attempt his usurpation. Coordinating their actions with the media - and especially Sky News who they were only too eager to inform in advance - the disloyal minnows within Labour's ranks began resigning their positions on an hourly basis, expecting this would undermine Corbyn to the point where he'd have to go. Astonishingly their plot failed as Corbyn, motivated by conviction, obstinacy, or a combination of both, refused to yield. With the support of Labour's union wing he cemented his position as party leader.

As the ripples from the shock of the Brexit decision began to dissipate, Westminster set to work on the daunting process of untangling the UK from forty-three years of European integration. Meanwhile those disparate forces within and without the establishment who sought to derail Brexit started shaking off their punch drunkenness, beginning to regroup. Talks regarding the exit agreement began between London and Brussels while the European Community (Withdrawal) bill started grinding its way through Parliament with difficulty. The formal letter announcing the UK's intention to leave the EU in two years' time under the provisions of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was presented to European Council President Donald Tusk. It seemed British as well as European politics were going to be a rollercoaster ride.

And then...

I can only speculate on what led the Prime Minister to call a General Election in May 2017; I might examine her motives for doing so in greater detail in future chapters should events warrant it. Perhaps Mrs May really did think she needed to increase her party's slim parliamentary majority to ensure the passage of the Withdrawal Bill, and thought there was a real chance of doing so. Or given the opinion polls of the time, was tempted by the thought of not just defeating Labour, but effectively annihilating them as a political force. Whatever her reasoning, as the first exit polls were declared shortly after the polls closed on June the 8th it was clear she had made a monumental error. Her narrow majority had gone; the Conservatives were now a minority government, relying on the regressive Ulster Democratic Unionist Party for the support required to pass legislation, and a difficult situation had been made all but impossible.

Somehow May's administration staggered on - in office but not in power - but the Brexit process became mired, partly by the concessions she was forced to make in order to get the Brexit Bill through Parliament, and also because the European Union negotiators, sensing London's weakness, took a hard line. As a result, at the time of publication there has yet to be a withdrawal treaty agreed between the UK and EU, and even if one were to be, no guarantee that it would be approved by Parliament - a confirmation vote being one of the compromises May had to agree to in order to placate a divided House of Commons and riven Tory party. With less than six months to go before Exit Day we are running out of runway: The constant 'kicking the can down the road' has to end; something has got to happen, and soon. There can be no denying it; it's just a question of What and When, but at the moment all is uncertainty.