The Brexit Chronicles

A Cunning Plan...

Published on October the 12th, 2019. 13.30.

Hey-ho and up she rises... The 'deal' it seemed certain had been deep-sixed only a couple of days ago appears to have been refloated, thanks to what would be a major retreat on Boris Johnson's part; effectively allowing Ulster to remain in the EU customs union.

Yes, the Red Line has been shifted, the 'Irish Sea border' previously such an unacceptable part of the previous Withdrawal Agreement is back on the agenda of the renewed 'intensive' discussions; even the DUP and the ERG are biting their tongues for the moment. What the hell is going on? Is Bojo really so desperate for a 'deal' at any price that despite his bluster he'll leap at the chance of signing a repackaged version of Theresa May's thrice discredited accord? Does he really think it is possible to get such a 'gift-wrapped turd' passed by the Commons?

I think this newly restored bonhomie is his - or more likely Dominic Cummins' - version of Baldrick's Cunning Plan, and the sequence of events they hope it will result in runs like this:
The negotiations and positive noises emanating from them will continue until the European Summit on Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, at which point a 'deal' would be concluded with the EU27 including the binding provision this is the only as well as final agreement possible - take it or leave it - with no further changes to it being entertained under any circumstances, nor any delay in its implementation from the end of this month be brooked. The UK parliament would be required to pass it immediately without considering a second referendum, with any refusal to do so regarded by Brussels as an irrevocable de-facto declaration of a No Deal Brexit.

Imagine the consternation which would break out on the October 19th 'Showdown Saturday' special sitting of Parliament! Now the Cunning Plan would be laid bare; for despite any diplomatic fig-leaves regarding the Ulster assembly in Stormont having a say on how long any 'transitional arrangements' should last and when they might end, this would still be in all but name the same 'deal' the House had already rejected.

Having delivered a 'deal’ to the Commons, the Prime Minister would have discharged and been absolved of his duties under the Benn Act, which would now be rendered irrelevant. He could tell the House it faced the stark choice of approving or rejecting the 'unacceptable' agreement, with the blame and consequences arising therefrom falling squarely upon their shoulders.

At this point the hitherto silent ERG and DUP who had been let in on the ruse would come out in opposition to the agreement, along with a sizable faction of the Parliamentary Conservative Party. The Labour Party, and especially Jeremy Corbyn, would also find themselves caught on the horns of a dilemma. Under these circumstances the freshly-signed 'deal' would face a parliamentary defeat in scale to the previous times at which it was presented. Though fatigued after burning the midnight oil and his flight to London, Boris Johnson could smile knowing he'd finally gained the upper hand on his opponents and his No Deal Brexit was now a certainty; after suffering as the statue for so long, at last he could luxuriate in being the pigeon.

Though some might suspect this is BoJo's intent, there is little they can do about it until he opens his gambit; all Johnson has to do for this plan to succeed is to keep the ERG, the DUP, and the EU believing in him for just a few more days...