The Brexit Chronicles

Tick... Tock...

Published on December the 3rd, 2018.

So the countdown has begun to the vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal, the final vote on which is currently scheduled for December the 11th. Assuming the proposal is roundly defeated there are a number of possible outcomes. The most likely is that May would use the defeat as the opportunity to go back to Brussels and beg for a tinkering here and there on the agreement; a form of words she could take back to parliament in the hope of winning over some of the more lily-livered waverers, though even that would seem to be a forlorn hope.

An even more remote prospect is Labour's already tabled motion of no confidence to be carried; turkeys don't vote for the Christmas of a general election and Corbyn doesn't have the votes to form a minority government, which is probably for the best for the Labour Party's long term prospects, as any association with a de-facto 'national government' would prove to be toxic to them.

Given the panic which is likely to grip the chamber in the aftermath of the vote, and assuming the vote of confidence in the Prime Minister is carried, there are bound to be calls for a second referendum, but I think they're unlikely to pass. The recent gilets jaunes protests in France will be fresh in MPs' minds; a reminder of what an enraged populace in revolt looks like; today Paris, tomorrow London were there any attempt to undo the result of the Peoples' Vote which took place in 2016.

And ruling out a change in Prime Minister for a leader who would attempt to achieve in a few short weeks what their predecessor failed to do in two wasted years - for Mr Rees-Mogg's 1922 committee gun appears to have jammed for the moment - what is left is a 'No Deal' (but in reality a hastily negotiated 'business as usual' for the time being to avoid mutually damaging problems) scenario. This is the default which will come into effect unless parliament actively votes to change it and the EU agrees. As if that wasn't enough there are cases being fast-tracked through the European Court, the verdicts are due soon. They may yet be a firecracker thrown into an already combustible atmosphere.