The Brexit Chronicles

Déjà Vu

Published on October the 27th, 2019. 07.50.

"Yes I can. I'd rather be dead in a ditch." - Boris Johnson's reply to a question asking him if he could guarantee he would not, even if bound by law, request from the EU a delay to Brexit beyond October 31, asked on September the 5th, 2019.

Operation Yellowhammer is in effect: The emergency signage and traffic cones have been placed out, while the emergency lorry parks for continental bound hauliers are ready to open if required. If at long last the UK escapes the EU's clutches on Friday we're as ready as we're ever likely to be, but the chances are the preparations will again be in vain.

The parliamentary Gordian knot is as tightly bound as ever with the government proposing to bring forward a motion for a general election this Monday, but already Jeremy Corbyn has insisted Labour won't allow the vote to pass unless Boris Johnson explicitly rules out the possibility of a clean Brexit. Meanwhile the WAB they supposedly want to see passed remains 'paused' pending the outcome of discussions between the EU27, whos' decision is due also on Monday, but more likely Tuesday may be influenced by the chances of breaking the Westminster logjam and getting the deal passed...

It seems France is holding out; making any extension conditional on there being a likelihood of getting the WAB passed within a month. Without such a commitment from the UK government - which it cannot guarantee - Paris, or more specifically Emmanuel Macron, is rumoured to threaten to veto any extension, though in reality will grudgingly allow a further delay to possibly November the 30th.

So it may all be over by Christmas; yes we've been told that before. I very much doubt it, and expect the saga to drag on and the pressure to build for months yet.