The Brexit Chronicles

The Aftermath

Published on May 27th, 2019. 08.15.

Most of the EU election results have been declared, and are broadly as predicted. In England and Wales the Brexit Party have topped the poll, winning 28 seats, while the Tories have suffered their worst ever performance since the party's foundation in 1830, trailing in fifth place behind the Lib-Dems, Labour, and Greens.

So now that squall has blown through, what will its lasting effects be? The Brexit Party may be cock-a-hoop for the moment, feeling they are the wind in the sails pushing all boats off course to starboard; but where do they go from here? Apart from the Peterborough by-election due on June 6th, the next opportunity for the party to be tested at the polls will be the local elections in May 2020, and a lot will have changed by then. As a party which sprang up in reaction to the Tories' failure, the BP's fate is inextricably entwined with theirs'; if the next Prime Minister sees the UK out of the bloc in October, then what is the BP's raison d'etre?

As for the Tories; though they avoided complete annihilation winning three seats, these results confirm their worst fears. As a result I expect the next leader - either Johnson or Raab - will be firmly committed to the Halloween exit - with or without a revised exit agreement - and will brook no more of the parliamentary obstruction which led at long last to their predecessor's downfall. The europhile faction of the party may wail and gnash their teeth, but the new broom will apply the same determination to whipping them into line as they do in attacking the disadvantaged, for they know the Brexit Party stands ready behind them, blade in hand... Any talk of a second referendum will quickly fade, as it was May's contemplation of even offering the prospect of one which finally tipped opinion against her, and even with the results obsfucated by the D'Hondt proportional representation counting system it is clear public opinion on Brexit still remains as divided as ever. No, the risk would be too great to take, as would be calling a General Election, which would be unlikely to resolve the issue, but result in another hung parliament.

It's possible that Labour as well could have a leadership contest following their dismal showing. Corbyn's attempt to straddle the fence has only resulted in him getting splinters where it hurts. As in 2016 he may see off any challenge with the help of the union block votes, but his bubble has clearly burst. Faced with a charismatic Tory leader - or even a Tory capable of leading - his Blairite enemies will sense his weakness and attempt to depose him.

In truth though May's announcement of her resignation, though too late the day after to affect the result, has drawn much of the toxicity from the situation. With the saboteur-in-chief on the way out, the way to Brexit has just become easier, and I feel far more confident it will happen on October 31st.