The Brexit Chronicles

Sorry World!

Published on Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019. 12.40.

"Swarms of thoughts are swirling around my head. God help us Boris Johnson might be Prime Minister soon! And on the subject of buffoons with terrible barnets, if this can happen, then maybe Donald Trump can win the Republican nomination and go on to become president. A mentally ill leader's gauche foreign policy leading to not one, but two regional nuclear wars was part of the back story to a novel I wrote. I really hope I'm not developing a latent psychic ability!" - Arc of the Moon, by John Curzon. 2016.

It's been a few weeks since my last post; there hasn't been much to report as of late; but now with the Tory party leadership election reaching its conclusion the hiatus is over and the Brexit saga is set for further episodes.

There are 67.5 million Britons, yet the choice of our next Prime Minister was decided by 160,000 Tory party members - 0.25% of the population, or an electorate smaller than a premium rate text vote count for a reality TV show - from a shortlist of Jeremy Rhyming Slang Surname and Boris Johnson. In reality the contest has been over ever since the parliamentary Conservative party narrowed the choice down to those two, with Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson so far ahead it was a wonder why Hunt didn't concede the contest in order to allow the victor more preciously short time to settle into office, but no, we had to wait until the official announcement; the only mystery being the size of BoJo's victory which was revealed as 92,153 to Hunt's 46,656.

But now he's been elected, even by a two-to-one majority,  Johnson's problems might only be beginning; the series of rolling cabinet minister resignations began even before the declaration, and Theresa May has stated she will only relinquish her primeministership when she is sure Boris would enjoy the confidence of the House of Commons: Given a cross-party group of Remainers have threatened a vote of No Confidence against the government at the moment of his assuming power with the Tory/DUP coalition's majority down to a handful of votes, that is by no means a certainty. It's unlikely, but possible, that such is the Remain faction's thrall to the EU (Exactly what sort of Kompromat must exist about them to engender such a desperate fealty?) there is the real prospect they would choose the sepukku of prompting a general election in preference to allowing a 'No Deal' (though I prefer the term 'No Strings') Brexit to occur. BoJo - new leader of the Conservative Party though not yet Prime Minister - might find himself a helpless passenger as the Quislings within Parliament deliberately set out to crash the still driven by Theresa May Tory bus in favour of a successor Remainer coalition government rather than accept what is unpalatable to them.

But that is their last resort nuclear option; already the Remainers have passed procedural amendments to bills with the intention of making a prorogation of Parliament more difficult. I expect that should Johnson feel such a measure were necessary, he could obtain from the Queen a Royal Proclamation to do so which would have the legal effect of overriding any parliamentary shenanigans: This would be testing the limits of our nebulous unwritten constitution, but then we've been in uncharted waters for quite a while already when the Secretary of State for International Development and defeated Tory leadership contender Rory Stewart openly advocates convening an 'alternative parliament' in order to frustrate a clean Brexit should the legitimate house be suspended. I think were he stupid enough to attempt such a move, he'd fall foul of the law against Treason, which would be a silly thing to do as, according to the latest Project Fear scare story, Brexit could spark prison riots by famished inmates, who would suffer food shortages for reasons which were not made clear.

But it isn't just the Tories suffering; Labour as well have their problems. Thanks to Corbyn's Brexit vacillations what appeared to be a government in waiting two years ago has now slumped to fighting with the Greens for fourth place in the opinion polls. They were fortunate to hold their Peterborough seat from the Brexit Party by 683 votes, due largely to the party machine being able to mobilise their supporters, but their resources would be stretched far more thinly in the event of a general election. I think we've seen 'peak Corbyn' with the only way for him from here being down and out.

The Brecon and Radnor by-election will take place on August the 1st, but as an informal coalition of the Remainer parties has been formed to support the Lib-Dem candidate, it will be difficult for the Brexit Party to break through in that seat. They need something to react against in order to maintain their momentum, and a Tory Brexiteer Prime Minister committed to leaving by Halloween, who has said "If we kick the can, we kick the bucket." seems likely to dampen the anger which has fuelled the Brexit Party's rise - for now at least.

So three years later than expected, BoJo is on the brink of entering Downing Street. He, and the nation in general, will speculate about what could have been achieved, what different roads might have been taken, had he won the previous leadership election. But we are where we are, and now with one hundred days to go until the October Exit Day we'll find out if Johnson is a statesman or gaffe-prone incompetent. Based on his previous record I think the latter is the more likely.