The Brexit Chronicles

The Calm Before The Storm

Published on December the 7th, 2018.

The media is awash with speculation as to what will happen after the Bexit vote on December the 11th. My predictions are that the May 'deal' will be defeated, but by a far smaller margin than is currently expected. Then Labour's no confidence motion in the government planned for December the 12th will be lost, with the DUP who so recently voted against the Prime Minister bizarrely rallying to her aid, if only because the antideluvians hate Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party even more. I'm also certain the obstinate old bitch will refuse to resign her post no matter what, and a Tory leadership challenge will fail to materialise.

Beyond that, Theresa May's options will be determined by the scale of her defeat. If it is only by a handful of votes she might try to obtain a cosmetic rewrite of the leaving agreement from the EU summit to be held on December 13/14th, but if the losing margin is greater than 20 or 30 that must surely be even more  of a lost cause than it appears now.

There is also the effect of the European Court of Justice's definitive judgement due on Monday, December the 10th to consider. If it follows the opinion of the Advocate General as is customary, then in the wake of May's defeat there seems likely to be a cross party momentum building to invoke the Grieve Amendment and have Parliament push for for a "Norway' style Brexit or a second referendum.

But putting aside for the moment how ludicrous it is that an EU court is deciding whether or not the UK government has the power to suspend its Article 50 declaration, the problem for the Remainers is that although the amendment provides for Parliament to have a 'meaningful say' in the matter, its opinion won't carry any legislative weight: It would be up to the government to propose a  new law to suspend or annul the Article 50 process, or allow a Private Member's bill with the same effect to proceed. We could yet see the uneddifying sight of utter pandemonium breaking out with a powerless administration trying vainly to get a grip on a wayward House of Commons intent on derailing Brexit by any means, and ours being an unwritten, untested constitution, anything can and probably will happen!

Meanwhile the countdown continues...