The Brexit Chronicles

Anything you can coup, I can coup better...

Published on September the 7th, 2019. 15.30.

Boris Johnson has had possibly the worst ever start to a Primeminstership. He's suffered the political equivalent of 'going under the Fratton End' and at the end of a tumultuous week finds himself roughed-up; the victim of a proper shoeing. What can he do now? Where does he go from here?

I've read one speculative report, probably written under the influence of too much journalistic gin, which hinted BoJo might throw it all in and effectively chuck the keys to Downing Street at Jeremy Corbyn in a fit of pique, daring Jezza to go as PM to the EU ministers in mid-October and do the dirty work himself. But I can't see that happening; that would be a career ending admission of failure. Or Boris might instead be holding his royal flush very close to his chest, knowing, but not letting on that when the Benn Act is submitted for Royal Assent on Monday it will be either refused, or approval delayed until after a snap general election called on Her Majesty's initiative. Or could there be an obscure legal technicality waiting in the wings which would render it all invalid? These are all possibilities, but ones I wouldn't rely on.

Instead I think it more likely that Johnson will simply take note of the Act's passing into law, and simply ignore it, continuing as he planned. He wouldn't be crass enough to publicly announce the fact right now, but simply give non-committal answers and statements up until to the mid-October EU summit, where he would offer one last chance for the Bloc to renegotiate a redrafted Withdrawal Agreement - an unlikely prospect - and if a deal wasn't forthcoming, he'd fly back to London without asking for a further Article 50 extension.

Yes, the cat would be well and truly out of the bag at that point, and Parliament reconvening the day after would be in uproar. But seriously, what could they do about it with less than two weeks to go until Exit Day? Call for a Vote of No Confidence? Well, they'd be hoist on their petard in that case, having had but deliberately frustrated the chance to have forced a general election which would have been held by now back in early September. The Commons would still be bound by the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, and though it might be possible to cobble together a cross-party Renainer emergency government of 'national unity' within the stipulated fourteen day timeframe, it would probably be too late for such an administration to go dashing back to Brussels, begging for a last-gasp reprieve; never mind how such a course of action might risk the simmering Leaver discontent flashing into riots at home... Faced with such indecisive chaos the the EU in those circumstances would be minded to say, "Sorry, but we gave you six months to get this sorted-out...” Game over, Halloween Brexit, Boris wins.

Having pulled such a blinder, Johnson and the Tories would be able to capitalise on having 'delivered' Brexit in the subsequent election campaign, regardless of the means employed in getting it done. The 'Rebel Alliance', having been outflanked, would equally pay a high price for their inability to stop the UK 'crashing out', as well as their ongoing contempt for the will of the people.

Alternatively, Parliament might attempt to convene a Star Chamber in the hope that legal means might be employed against the Prime Minister in order to coerce him into belatedly complying with the Benn Act, or impeaching him from office, or instigating criminal proceedings against him. But once again, even if such a move were to be considered lawful, the same time constraints and issues described earlier would still apply. Not only that but such a move would instantly confer hero-martyr status upon BoJo; notwithstanding the fact he could invoke the defence of Crown Immunity for his actions, and the fact the government effectively breaks the law all the time, he would in effect be untouchable.

Given all that, along with Boris' oft-stated determination to achieve Brexit at any cost by Halloween, reinforced by his recent quote that he'd "rather lie dead in a ditch" than request another extension from Brussels, his choices are stark: He could abide by the parliamentary coup and be a zero, or resist and become a hero. Only Bojo knows whether he has the inclination or the courage of his convictions to take the latter difficult route, and see it through to the bitter end.