The Brexit Chronicles

The Eve Of The War

Published on January the 14th, 2019.

No one would have believed in the early months of 2019 that Parliament was yet to have voted on the UK's exit agreement with the EU, yet feeble intellects cold-hearted and unsympathetic, regarded this nation with covetous eyes, and deliberately and surely drew their plans against us...

But short of any last-minute delaying tactics the long awaited Vote should be held tomorrow. The scale of Theresa May's likely defeat is estimated anywhere from 240 to 130; I expect her humiliation will be at the lower end of the scale, but after that inevitable act is over the question is where the farcical plot goes next.

Labour's theatrical No Confidence motion will of course be voted down; for no matter how much the Prime Minister may be detested by large sections of her own party, no Tory MP would want a snap general election at which they may well find themselves unseated. Nor will May fall on her own sword; not with the prospect of twenty-one days of time to fritter away before she, or a minister, is required to report to the Commons their intentions as stipulated in the EU Withdrawal Act. A government push for a second referendum or  abandoning the Brexit process are also non-starters, so what are her options?

A month long extension to the Article 50 declaration and postponement of the leaving date is a possibility; it could be argued that doing so would give Parliament more time to pass the backlog of legislation required in any case to facilitate our departure as well as allowing more time to prepare; but beyond a month problems loom because the European parliament elections are due to be held on May 23-26, with the UK's representation due to end as a result of Brexit. So might the Prime Minister do the unthinkable and leap horses mid-race from Deal to Managed No Deal? It would be a stunning move, even if she was only doing so to galvanise the Commons into making the cross-party plots to frustrate the process a reality. Any cabinet ministers horrified to the point of resignation would quickly be be replaced as Theresa gallops on ahead warning that No Deal is what will happen without any alternative.

The trouble with that approach is that charging horses are difficult to rein in; although such an excruciating strategy would have the Commons desperate enough to consider anything - even a recasting of the rejected Deal - the risk is the runaway No Deal horse,  with or without its rider, would be beyond control by then. It would be an irony to see May clinging on for dear life as the final fence is taken, but I think there is a strong chance of it happening.

Some of the speculation begins to be resolved from tomorrow; the lay of the land may become clearer from then. I'll be writing another 'live' chapter as events progress.