The Brexit Chronicles

What's in Bojo's pocket?

Published on October the 8th. 2019. 20.45.

Sooner than expected any prospect of a renegotiated Exit Deal has popped; burst in an explosion of mutual recriminations, with Donald Tusk accusing Boris Johnson of trying to win a "stupid blame game" and Angela Merkel saying the hopes of any agreement were "overwhelmingly unlikely". Downing Street in turn has described the prospects of successful talks as ”essentially impossible" and threatened an "obstructive" response going forward in regard to EU matters. So the conclusion Emmanuel Macron had said would be arrived at by the end of this week is already apparent by mid-week; there is no realistic chance of reaching a Withdrawal Agreement by the month's end.

With this fact evident, what happens now? It is all but certain there won't be a parliamentary takeover by a Government of National Unity; the Labour Party have put paid to that idea because the other parties refused to support Jeremy Corbyn as an interim Prime Minister. Nor does it seem likely the Remainers will be able to grasp control of the parliamentary agenda using Standing Order 24 again, for they have let that chance slip; as a result there won't be any more emergency legislation rushed through in this session. As for the EU, what hope have they of the UK capitulating and accepting the May Withdrawal Agreement, or revoking Article 50? Precious little! If they are minded to grant a further extension in the hope of an autumn General Election delivering a Remainer government then they must realise that British electoral opinions are hardening toward 'Getting Brexit Done' and against any further interminable delays. Apart from the UK's ongoing financial contributions, the bloc has nothing to gain from holding an unwilling nation hostage and are only setting themselves up for a miserable future. If there is no prospect of a deal being concluded, there is no reason for unilaterally extending the Article 50 deadline.

Conventional political wisdom holds that the EU doesn't want to be seen as the party instigating the irrevocable break; it would wish to be seen to be conciliatory and accommodating right to the bitter end: That no individual EU member would risk causing discord within the bloc, affecting their standing  and breaking the consensus by vetoing an extension request. That may well be so, but I'm sure tonight that in the European capitals serious consideration may be being given to agreeing collectively, unanimously that enough is finally enough and the time has come for the difficult member to be cut lose.

It may all come down to what cunning plan or lack of one Boris Johnson has tucked in his pocket when it comes to the final European summit. For someone who's been  put through the political mangle recently he's still very self-assured; is that borne of confidence or foolishness? What is his strategy? Will he hand in an official letter formally requesting an extension, quickly followed by another rescinding the first? Does he instead have an undivulged legal opinion which exposes a fatal flaw in and entitles him to legitimately ignore the Benn Act? Will he simply ignore the law and not ask for an extension, daring a discredited establishment to do their worst in reply, knowing that were that to happen he'd become an instant hero-martyr? Or could he threaten a 'nuclear' option; an outright repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, to be submitted to the Commons immediately upon his return, or by a new Leaver government in the wake of an election. At present the parliamentary arithmetic is tight, but it might just pass and lead to an instant Hard Brexit; such a move would also have the advantage of the UK being seen to wrest back control over its own destiny rather than relying on Brussels' favour for its release. Might he have no plan at all, save acquiescing to one final delay to be used as ammunition in the forthcoming election campaign? What does BoJo have in his pocket? We're sure to find out soon.