The Brexit Chronicles

Land of Confusion

Published on October 21st, 2018.

"Ooh Superman where are you now?
When everything's gone wrong somehow.
The men of steel, the men of power.
Are losing control by the hour." - Land of Confusion, by Genesis.

This was supposed to have been The Week; the week by which time enough progress should have been made to outline an exit deal by the self-imposed deadline of Monday the 15th of October, to be provisionally approved at the EU leaders' summit on the 17th. Or, if you believed the more lurid tabloids, it was to have been Theresa May's 'HELL WEEK', a time during which her government would come flying apart and the gallows trap door she'd been standing on since assuming her post finally drop away, leaving her dangling and strangling in the noose of her own creation. But as yet neither has happened, so what's going on?

It seemed possible only last Sunday, the 14th, that a deal had been '90% done' according to Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, but also on that day former Brexit minister David Davis was publicly calling for the cabinet to mutiny against Theresa May in order to prevent her acquiescing to a 'soft' Brexit, one which would see the UK leave the EU in name only, yet still be liable for financial contributions to it and to remain bound by the stifling regulatory regime the Leavers were so eager to escape from, but have no say in the future governance of the bloc - the dreaded 'colony' option.

By speaking out so openly Davis was acting on behalf of the real authorities of the Tory party, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson. It is they with whom the real power now rests; this was proven at the cabinet meeting on the 16th, built up by the media to be a tempestuous make or break event, but in reality nothing happend. Why was that?

I suspect privately May was told in advance - if she didn't already know - that if she dared to agree a Brexit on those terms her premiership would be brought to an abrupt end. That is why there was no open rebellion over the cabinet table or stormy resignations; there was no need for them.

So as Halloween looms, what now for our zombie Prime Minister? Any illusions she may have had about weasel wording a soft Brexit through must have been utterly disabused by now. She has absolutely no negotiating room to work with, for whatever step she might take in any direction will result in treading on a political landmine. She knows it, and more to the point the EU negotiators have had the fact proven to them, so much so that European Council Chairman Donald Tusk has said in a letter to EU leaders '...at the same time, responsible as we are, we must prepare the EU for a no-deal scenario, which is more likely than ever before'.

If that is the case, and everyone knows a No Deal is the most likely outcome, instead of wasting further time attempting to agree a hopeless arrangement wouldn't it be better to concentrate on drawing up practical, preferably civilised, expedient agreements to ease the more abrupt aspects of the separation? Nothing concentrates minds like an immovable deadline - which is why any talk of extending the transitional arrangement timeline or delaying the leaving date is nothing but hot air and paper talk; not even May's few supporters or the Remainer faction within the Tory ranks wouldn't countenance the idea - and hopefully more progress might be achieved in the next few months than was made in the time squandered so far.

If only a leader with some gumption had entered 10 Downing Street in July 2016, things might have been so different. They might have declared from the outset that the government intended to honour the referendum result as Brexit was commonly understood; the United Kingdom having no part in the customs union, and the EU having no residual say in UK affairs. From that starting point a bold approach would have engaged the US, Canada, and the Asian nations in formulating free trade agreements, allowing businesses plenty of tine to prepare for the changes in trading relationships, and the European Union could protest about the fact as much as they wanted to in the meantime. A confident Britain in a stronger position as a result would have been better placed to negotiate equitable reciprocal post-withdrawal arrangements with the remnant EU. But we are where we are, as the saying goes, and now we must grasp the nettle. The decades of EU membership have enfeebled our political establishment to the point where we appear afraid to stand up for ourselves, but stand we must.

I'd be delighted to learn just before or after Exit Day that the UK had been negotiating secret trade agreements with our global partners, and they were ready to be enacted from 23.02 on March the 29th - the moment the EU treaties end. But to do that implies a leadership with fortitude, and that's something Theresa May, stuck immobile like a rabbit caught in the cones of onrushing headlights, hasn't a hope of delivering. There are no good options for the Tories: they either keep her in place and join her as political roadkill, or they change leaders, which isn't easy as no-one wants her job, instead preferring to get as much mileage out of the old banger before it finally breaks down and is consigned to the scrapyard. But with real deadlines being missed, European meetings planned to smooth the implementation of a deal repurposed to discuss the impasse, and a growing clamour from the business community for some kind of clarity, the exasperation at May's leadership, even from her previously loyal backbenchers is becoming impossible to ignore.

This weekend, as always, will be one of febrile speculation in the press and the Sunday politics programmes. Every  nuance of every word examined in detail for any hint of a sign of the way things may go. Trial balloons may be launched and burst; kites flown. But among the welter of breathless gossip I caught one story which might have some credence to it. I'm sure in well-upholstered studies and Gentlemens' clubs serious consideration is being given to putting the Prime Minister out of her misery to be replaced by David Davis as an interim leader capable of grabbing the negotiations by the scruff of the neck. If his appointment failed to galvanise the talks within the next few weeks and an exit agreement proved impossible to come by, then at least he'd have the authority to order crash preparations for a No Deal scenario.

In that case there wouldn't be one separation document, but a hastily compiled melange of strictly time-limited temporary agreements to preserve the status quo until the current mess was resolved, along with a plethora of emergency reciprocal legislation of the type currently being considered by the French parliament, which among other measures regularises the status of UK citizens resident in France; recognises academic and professional qualifications earned by French nationals living in the UK should they wish to return, as well as validating the train operating licences of British Eurostar drivers crewing high speed trains on French territory. The EU may not like individual member states 'going it alone' but if a centralised agreement can't be reached, that's what it will come to.

Given the lateness of the hour, unceremoniously giving Mrs May her marching orders and taking such an approach would be the logical choice. But as the incompetent political class in general and the Tories in particular never fail to make an utter pig's ear of any situation, I think the zombie leaderenne will be left to shuffle on and decompose some more until it is too late.