The Brexit Chronicles

"A phantasmagorical goat fuck of the worst kind."

Published on November the 16th, 2018.

The quote I used for the title of this chapter was reportedly said by a junior minister describing the state the government had got itself into; as well as an accurate description of the current politics of Brexit, it does make you wonder about the way their minds work. So now that the dust has settled for the moment, what are we to make of the recent tumultuous events?

Yesterday Theresa May learned the hard way who really has control over the government, and it isn't her. Her cabinet by revolt and resignations have effectively circumscribed the Prime Minister's room for manoeuvre and killed the 'deal' stone dead. It will of course be submitted to a parliamentary vote at some point, but that is a formality, to demonstrate beyond any doubt how unacceptable it is.

At the time of writing there have been no further resignations, nor the official announcement from the 1922 committee that sufficient letters of no confidence had been lodged to trigger a leadership contest. Perhaps there won't be one; Jacob Rees-Mogg's public announcement of the submission of his letter putting Mrs May on notice that he has the support he needs, should he decide to trigger a confidence vote, but for the moment chooses not to do so. Were one to be held now, it is quite possible the Prime Minister could win it, not on her merits, but because no one wants her job at present. Instead the puppet master will be quite content to have the marionette dancing to his tune for now.

With the draft in its current form dead and the Prime Minister hamstrung, what happens next? There are a number of options. The first is to use the rejection of the draft agreement as as an attempt to renegotiate those most objectionable parts of it in the hope of sugar coating it enough for resubmission. Though the EU has said this is not an option, in diplomacy that should be taken as an opening gambit. If it was thought Ministers and MPs would be sufficiently mollified by a rephrasing or further explanation of the most contentious aspects, it would be attempted, but given the overwhelming derision heaped upon the proposals to date, I think that's a no-hoper.

Instead I expect we'll see the establishment's long standing covert plans to frustrate Brexit break cover. Following Parliament's initial rejection of the draft, there may be a slight rewording of it sufficient to justify its reconsideration. If that is refused then there will be calls for a second referendum to be held and the UK's Article 50 declaration to be postponed for as long is it took to come to a decision, either by a 'Peoples' Vote' or emergency general election; the likely result of either option after being influenced by an overpowering concerted 'project fear' propaganda campaign being cited as 'proof' 'the will of the people' had changed since 2016 and so justifying the abandonment of Brexit.

In this regard the thoughts of Tom Watson, Deputy Labour Leader, John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, and Kier Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary, are illuminating. They have implied today that if a renegotiated agreement is impossible to obtain, then they would favour a second referendum in preference to a No Deal Brexit. Starner even going as far as saying he'd be prepared to work with dissenting Tories on a 'Unity Platform' in order to stop a No Deal happening; yet his suggestion of an agreement based on permanent membership of the customs union would be even worse than that Theresa May is rightly being castigated for! Notwithstanding the People's Vote was held two years ago, and the issue isn't Brexit but the deliberate obstructionist incompetence of those entrusted to carry out the public's will which has brought us to this point, their kite flying should serve as a reminder that it's not only the Tories who are deeply split over this issue: Labour as well have their problems.

McDonnell also cited the parliamentary convention that if the current government were unable to carry a majority, the Opposition should be offered the chance of forming a minority administration. Dream on you fool! That isn't going to happen! The fact of him coming up with such obvious nonsense is rather worrying, as well as a warning Labour can't be trusted not to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. No, correct that; Labour can't be trusted. End of.

However, this is all speculation. If a week is usually a long time in politics, this coming weekend will seem much longer. This isn't the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. There are many more twists and turns yet to come in this chicanery.