The Brexit Chronicles

Everybody's Waiting...

Published on February the 17th, 2019.

It seems our oncoming Brexit is a case of 'Hurry up and wait'. March the 29th is just forty days away now, yet the time seems longer; thanks to Mrs May's deliberate ineptitude we still have yet to agree an orderly departure.

No doubt there will be more sham shuttle diplomacy, with the Prime Minister doing the shuttling between London and Brussels or the other European capitals, begging the EU for a crumb or two of comfort, anything she can offer to Parliament as evidence of 'progress'. It will make her appear to be busy doing something as well as using up more time to the point when she is able to return to Westminster for a final push at the eleventh hour with the ultimatum of her deal or No Deal.

But Theresa's strategy - such as it was - is already dead in the water, and everyone except her realises the fact. Slowly people, companies, financial markets, even the EU, are concluding that time has run out and a No Deal Brexit is inevitable, then working on that assumption. For what could possibly stop it at this late moment? Not the approval of the May deal; a defeat by 230 votes only a few weeks ago is impossible to recover from, especially as any resubmission of it is going to be an effectively unchanged document. Some arms might be twisted, some nerves falter as the deadline draws near, but not enough of them to make the difference; that was made plain by the Valentine's Day vote where it was clear the Prime Minister can't even rely on her own party's support.

If not that, then perhaps Parliament will 'take control' and vote for an Article 50 postponement?
Not a hope. Only the government through legislation could precipitate a revocation of Article 50, and that's unlikely to say the least! A deferral of the UK's leaving date would require the unanimous agreement of the other EU states, many of whom are no doubt thoroughly exasperated with the UK by now and only too glad to be rid of us. Were any such application to be made I suspect we'd be told we've made our bed and now we must lie in it.

Or the Europhile dreamers might yet be pinning their hopes on a second referendum; but again the recent 'meaningful votes' have shown there's not enough support in the Commons for that proposal. Despite the 'Peoples' Vote' campaign's plan for another mass rally on March the 23rd - a whole five days before Brexit Day - I think even they have accepted their ship has sailed and this will be their last hurrah.

Could anything stop the juggernaut now? Short of something unprecedented, such as a last-minute Royal Decree derailing the entire process - along with what passes for our 'democracy' - I think not; it has too much momentum. The point has been reached then passed where the costs and damage incurred in not leaving the EU are greater than even the most pessimistic No Deal scenario: The only way out, is through.

Project Fear have really jumped the shark in the last fortnight. We've been warned the Valentine's Day just passed might well be the last one on which we could afford  flowers imported from the Netherlands to give to our loves - all as a result of Brexit of course. The public have been advised the NHS has sufficient stockpiles of imported European body bags to cope (because nowhere else in the world produces them... Presumably they'll be used for the victims of the expected post-Brexit super gonorrhea, or starvation, or civil unrest...) as well as the 'secret' plans to whisk the Queen out of danger from London's ravening hordes by helicopter. But in doing so, they have shot their bolt, as well as utterly discrediting their cause.

So it would seem Brexit is going to happen -  be ready to deal with it!