The Brexit Chronicles

What Is And What Should Never Be.

Published on May 5th, 2019.

The counting is finished and the results of the local authority elections have been declared. The outcome was even worse than expected for the two pro-BRINO parties with the Tories losing 1334 council seats, and Labour 82. The beneficiaries were Independents, the Greens, and bizarrely the pro-EU Liberal Democrats: I suspect that the electorate collectively held their noses, and deciding that someone had to represent them in local affairs, voted for the party traditionally seen as more compromising as well as stronger in local government.

If the results were supposed to startle May and Corbyn into concluding a 'muddle in the middle' Withdrawal Agreement Act to be rushed through Parliament in time to forestall the European Elections on May 23rd it would appear they have failed, with relations souring between the parties, and today the Shadow Chancellor publicly accusing Theresa May of acting in bad faith. So not much hope of an accord being signed yet; and little incentive for Labour to bail out the  government, it being in their advantage to allow the Tory Titanic to founder on the unavoidable electoral iceberg lying in its course.

But during the past few weeks there has been a new development; the creation and explosive development of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. Like mushrooms appearing overnight in the wake of rain, it has grown from literally nothing to a political force strong enough to lead the opinion surveys by up to nine points ahead of Labour. Of course such polls are unreliable, but if as seems likely the EU elections become a proxy 'Peoples' Vote'  or second referendum with public opinion becoming increasingly polarised as well as more militantly in favour of an immediate No Deal departure from the bloc, when the results are counted in three weeks' time we may well be eyewitnesses to a political earthquake in progress.