The Brexit Chronicles

Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun

Published on October 21st, 2018.

On Saturday, October 20th, anywhere up to 700,000 people demonstrated in central London calling for a second confirmatory 'Peoples' Vote' referendum on any deal or lack thereof brought before parliament. I hope they enjoyed their day out in the pleasant autumnal sunshine, along with the camaraderie of so many other like-minded souls; but barring the most extraordinary circumstances I can't see their wish ever being granted.

There are practical as well as political reasons why that should be so. On the practical level both governments and businesses in the EU and worldwide have been operating on the assumption for the last two years that the UK will leave the EU, and been making their plans accordingly. The process is too advanced now to be reversed, and in any case were it to happen the UK under the vague tenets of EU law might find itself liable for all the costs incurred by the other member states and the EU bureaucracy in preparing for Brexit - the repayment of which would be sure to bankrupt the nation.

There is also the timetable of any second referendum to consider. Cast your mind back to the time it took to organise the legislative passage of the previous vote; along with the amount of preparation, fundraising, and campaigning before polling day. Now imagine repeating the process beginning now (late October 2018) but pausing campaigning over the Christmas period, then resuming it during the depths of winter before a vote held realistically no later than February, or perhaps later if the EU allows the UK to postpone our Exit Day... (The likelihood of better weather as well as the lighter evenings are the reasons UK elections are generally held in May.) Meanwhile the world markets along with the EU will be on tenterhooks awaiting the result. Oh, and there's the small matter of how the question on the ballot paper should be phrased, along with a clear understanding of what the government will do in the case of either binary option being decided... Ah; but wait a minute! Is this plebiscite going to be decided by a simple majority as happened the last time? Or is there to be a qualifying threshold for any decision to be regarded as valid? In the latter case there are bound to be accusations of bending the rules to favour one outcome over the other.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves: Short of an unprecedented Royal Decree the only body that can authorise another vote would be the same divided parliament we have at the moment. Now it is a long shot but still conceivable that a House of Commons which had just rent itself assunder with fractious schisms affecting both parties as a result of the 'meaningful vote' might collectively throw up its hands in despair and hand the matter back to the electorate, but I doubt it. In such a case it is more likely that a 'caretaker' rump Tory government would be charged with seeing Britain through Brexit Day before calling a General Election soon afterward, and surely even the inept Jeremy Corbyn would realise the danger posed to Labour's electoral chances by propping up a temporary 'national' government? Remember what happened to the Liberal Democrats...

Not only that, but having seen what happened the last time they allowed 'the people to decide' it is unlikely the political class would want to go through all that again, even under the most dire of circumstances, for to do so would be to openly admit their superfluousity and incompetence: Why the plebs might even question their raison d'etre, and that would never do...

But let's assume for the moment that a vote is held, and the result is... what exactly? To pause or delay the Brexit process? Or to abandon it completely? What then? How would the EU react? Would they agree to suspend or annul our Article 50 declaration? Would they even want us back, perhaps for the 'difficult member' to be the source of yet more friction later? and if so under what terms? Article 50 was drafted to be a fig leaf clause; a hypothetical means for a member state to leave the ever closer Union, but one never to be enacted; as such there were no detailed proceedural mechanisms contained within it, not any legal yardsticks for it to be judged in comparison to. So as ever with international politics and law, it's a matter for subjective interpretation: Did the UK's Article 50 declaration amount to a de-facto departure from the bloc? If that is deemed to be the case, on what terms would the UK be readmitted? Loss of all of the opt-outs and derogations from EU law that we previously enjoyed? The UK adopting the Euro? Signing up to the Schengen Agreement? Forgoing our previous long standing budget rebates? Abidance by the Union laws and decisions agreed to since our departure was announced, but from which we were excluded from having an input into making because we were leaving? Well good luck to any British government trying to impose such a humiliating outcome on a divided nation! Perhaps there should be a third vote...

And on the subject of a angry nation, what happens if the second referendum results in an even more emphatic Leave result? or instead flips to a narrow Remain? Given the latter outcome I can imagine the outrage that would erupt in some of the thuggish extreme rightist sections of the Leave camp; the development of an incendiary 'stabbed in the back' narrative which has successfully fuelled fascistic movements in the past, and the rapid rise of an unpleasant though populist party aiming to fill the vacuum crested by the collapse of the existing order. Not to mention the likely response of a right wing government finding itself under pressure from such forces; in redoubling its diversionary hate campaigns against society's disadvantaged groups. No, a Peoples' Vote isn't the reasonable placatory panacea that some believe it to be; it risks creating even more problems.

I know people who marched yesterday: They range from fervent EU supporters to those who are aghast at the direction the Brexit process is taking; their motives are noble, their intentions good. I understand their arguments, but still I'd remind them of the Chinese saying, "Be careful what you wish for, as you may get it!"